Latest South African Art Auction Market Update

Michael Coulson

After a spate of poor to mediocre results both in SA and London, the latest two SA art auctions held by long-established Stephan Welz/Sotheby’s (Swelco) and newcomer Strauss & Co and brought better results, in terms of the percentage of lots sold and prices compared to pre-sale estimates. Is this sustainable, or just a temporary rally in a bear market – a dead cat bounce, in stock market parlance?

Both firms are guardedly optimistic. Strauss’s Stephan Welz says “My gut tells me that it can last,” while Swelco’s fine art expert in Cape Town, Phillippa Duncan, is even more positive. “Certainly it’s sustainable,” she says. “People want to protect their art collections, which they see as a major asset. If they can’t get the price they want, they’ll simply hold on for a less rainy day.”

But there are reservations.

Welz warns that “There’ll be serious problems at the lower end of the market, which will have to reorientate itself. Some artists’ work has been bought for social and political reasons more than artistic merit.

“What you could call ‘calendar’ art may also face tough times. The market for [Johan] Oldert has virtually disappeared, while prices for, say, Gabriel de Jongh have barely moved in the past five years.”

Duncan stresses that quality will be vital. Both clearly feel that the fact that Bonham’s was left with 20 of the 27 Irma Sterns in its pre-Christmas sale had as much to do with their quality as with any weakness in demand for the artist, though Welz (basking in the near-record for Magnolias in his sale) does think that she may have peaked for now – as may Pierneef, and even Maggie Laubser.

Peak prices may themselves give people pause, he says. “They may think, why I should I spend R4m or whatever on a Stern when I can buy a very pleasant Terrence McCaw for R60 000-R80 000? Or, higher up the scale, a Hugo Naude?”

But if the market as a whole is sustainable, which second-liners or outsiders may narrow the gap with Stern and Pierneef in the months ahead?

Duncan is reluctant to be drawn. “It’s dangerous to be a tipster. People must start buying what they like again. And despite the collapse of the market for contemporary art internationally, it’s becoming stronger locally.

“However, contemporary artists must temper their often unrealistic expectations. It’s taken [William] Kentridge 20 years to reach his current status, and he has every right to command the prices he does. But it’s problematical when newcomers think they can expect the same.”

Welz is more forthcoming – or foolhardy.

“There’s a lot of room for Hugo Naude still. The market loves his cheerful floral landscapes. Alexis Preller could come in for a run, helped by the imminent publication of an authoritative book on him (sponsored by Gordon Schachat). And there’s always interest in Maud Sumner. Two with a lot of steam left in them are Freida Lock and Adolph Jentsch, though they’re held back by a lack of supply.”

Supply is crucial. “I thought that after getting R1.4m for a Dorothy Kay [who many think is unduly neglected] we’d be inundated by her work, but we haven’t been offered a thing! The good people of Port Elizabeth [where she lived and worked] either don’t follow the market or are inseparably attached to their Kays.”

I throw another PE name, a favourite of mine, at him: Fred Page. “He’s an amazing artist, but not everyone’s idea of a pleasing picture. A book’s being put together on him, too, though I hear they may be looking for sponsorship.”

Recent interest in Tretchikoff, driven by one “total aberration of a price”, he dismisses as speculative rather than from genuine collectors – though he insists that, despite neither of Strauss’s Tretchis being accorded a price in the post-sale list, he did sell one of them.

Remarkably, neither Welz nor Duncan see the world economic crisis as a major threat. Duncan reckons that the rich will still be buying quality paintings; Welz adds that his firm’s clients – though he’s not specific, this means traditional middle- and upper-income whites and the emerging black elite – haven’t been hit by recession – yet. And he believes that, if Zimbabwe is to be reconstructed, the knock-on benefits for SA will be substantial.

He’s also encouraged by the breadth of buying at the Strauss sale. “There weren’t just one or two buyers, but a healthy spread.”

Next big test, both agree, will be the Brett Kebble sale in May – but again with reservations. As Duncan puts it, she fears that Kebble often bought by name rather than quality. Well, we’ll soon find out.